THE OUTLYING THREE – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  We focus each day now on the three "outliers," the three major polls that are getting famous for disagreeing with the big fat guys, all of whom are predicting a decisive Clinton victory.

Yesterday (cue the Soap Opera organ music) the three showed tiny leads for Hillary Clinton – so small as to be insignificant.  Today, two show the same thing, but one has reverted to a small Trump lead:

From IBD/TIPP, with a great record of accuracy:

Hillary Clinton maintained her lead over Donald Trump in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll, but she is ahead by less than a full percentage point — 41.8% to 41.2% — in a four-way matchup. Libertarian Gary Johnson captures 8% of the vote, with Jill Stein down to 2.9%.

Clinton is now up two points in a head-to-head race with Trump — 43.3% to 41.3%.

From Rasmussen: 

Hillary Clinton still maintains a slight advantage as support for the major third party candidates appears to be slipping away in Rasmussen Reports’ latest White House Watch survey.

The new national telephone and online survey shows Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump 44% to 43% among Likely U.S. Voters. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns a new low of four percent (4%) support, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has fallen to one percent (1%). Three percent (3%) still like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

It is common for third-party support to slip as election day nears.  Many voters decide they want to vote for someone with a chance at winning.

The L.A. Times tracker, which showed a slight Clinton lead yesterday, now shows a razor-thin Trump margin, with Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 44.2%. 

The election is less than two weeks away.  If the major polls are correct, Clinton needs only to get through these final campaign days.  If the three musketeers, the outliers, are correct, this race can go either way.

October 26,  2016